On the 18th of February, 2022, just six days before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, then-President Joe Biden of the United States expressed his strong belief that Moscow had made the decision to invade Ukraine. When asked how he had come to this conclusion, Biden stated, “We have a significant intelligence capability.”
At that time, Ukraine’s government, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was uncertain about Biden’s assessment, insisting that a full-scale invasion was unlikely.
Biden’s prediction turned out to be correct, whereas Ukraine’s confidence was misplaced.
Since the outbreak of the war, the US has not only provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in advanced weaponry but has also shared intelligence with Ukraine utilizing its extensive spying resources, aiding Kyiv defensively and in planning attacks against Russian forces.
However, this assistance came to a stop on Wednesday when US officials confirmed that President Donald Trump had directed the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. This decision came two days after the US halted military aid to Ukraine, amidst deteriorating relations between Trump and Zelenskyy.
So, how significant has the US intelligence support been for Ukraine during the war? How damaging will the absence of US intelligence be for Ukraine? And can Europe step in to assist Ukraine?
Here is what we currently know.
What occurred?
US officials have verified that Washington has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This action followed reports from numerous US media outlets stating that Trump had stopped military aid to Kyiv, citing unnamed US officials.
John Ratcliffe, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), confirmed the intelligence pause in an interview with Fox Business aired on Wednesday.
US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also acknowledged the pause to reporters on the same day. Waltz stated, “We have taken a step back and are pausing and reviewing all aspects of this relationship.” He also mentioned having “productive discussions” about negotiations with Ukraine.
US officials have indicated that the pause on military aid and intelligence sharing could be lifted if there is a diplomatic breakthrough between Trump and Zelenskyy.
“I believe we will see progress very soon,” stated Waltz.
Why did the US cease intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
Reporting from the White House, Alan Fisher of Al Jazeera explained that cutting off intelligence sharing was a tactic to encourage Ukraine to come back to the negotiating table.
Fisher elaborated: “They [the US] also mentioned halting military aid to Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials admitted would impact their war efforts.”
“Evidently, the mere threat of these actions has been effective. Therefore, when the national security advisor suggests that things could resume shortly, it implies that any impact on Ukraine would be minimal, as long as peace talks seem likely in the near future,” Fisher added.
How did this situation arise?
Trump’s decision to pause military aid, along with the recent cessation of intelligence sharing, followed escalating tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy over the past few weeks.
Trump shifted US policy towards Ukraine, initiating direct discussions with Moscow to end the war. In February, American and Russian officials held talks facilitated by Saudi Arabia, excluding Ukraine and its European allies from the conversation.
In the aftermath, Trump and Zelenskyy engaged in a war of words: Trump labeled Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections,” raising doubts about his public approval ratings. In response, Zelenskyy criticized Trump for residing in a “disinformation bubble.”
On the 28th of February, Zelenskyy met with Trump, US Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Oval Office in the White House. Trump and Vance accused Zelenskyy of not showing enough gratitude for the military assistance provided by Washington to Kyiv. Shortly afterwards, on Monday, Trump suspended military aid.
The following day, Zelenskyy adopted a conciliatory tone, stating that Ukraine was prepared to return to the negotiation table. “We highly appreciate the support that America has extended to help Ukraine preserve its sovereignty and independence,” he wrote in a post on X platform.
How has the US aided Ukraine with intelligence up to this point?
Prior to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, the US had provided substantial intelligence support to Ukraine.
While the specific details and the exact extent of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine have not been publicly disclosed, multiple reports, officials, and leaks indicate two key areas where this support has been crucial.
The intelligence, primarily consisting of satellite imagery and signals, enables Ukrainian forces to prepare for incoming Russian attacks. It also assists in tracking Russian troop movements and the locations of their bases, allowing Ukrainian forces to target them with missiles, including long-range projectiles. This includes strikes on Russian territory using long-range weapons such as ATACMS and HIMARS provided by Ukraine’s Western allies.
“The United States can provide Ukraine with the coordinates or satellite imagery of Russian logistical centers, allowing Ukraine to eliminate them,” explained Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, to Al Jazeera.
“From the Ukrainian perspective, this information is essential for targeting hostile objectives such as ammunition depots and logistical hubs,” she added.
But there is more.
In February 2024, an investigation by The New York Times revealed that following the destruction of a Ukrainian military command center in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion, an underground bunker was constructed to replace it. In this bunker, Ukrainian soldiers monitor Russian spy satellites and intercept conversations among the Russian military. The construction and operation of this base are largely financed and partly equipped by the CIA, as reported by The Times.
The report also disclosed the existence of several CIA-supported spy bases in Ukraine, spread across 12 secret locations along the Russian border.
Furthermore, it was revealed that around 2016, the CIA commenced training an elite Ukrainian commando unit known as Unit 2245, responsible for capturing Russian drones and communication equipment. The CIA would then reverse-engineer these devices to decipher Moscow’s encrypted communications. One of the officers trained by this program was Kyrylo Budanov, who currently serves as Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence.
Will the suspension of intelligence sharing impact Ukraine’s combat capabilities?
It has already had an impact.
Reporting from Ukraine, Charles Stratford of Al Jazeera stated that he conversed with a Ukrainian commander in a unit located near the front line.
“He mentioned that his unit, along with many others situated along the 1,300km front line in the east and south of Ukraine, depend on American intelligence for about 90% of their intelligence operations,” revealed Stratford. “He expressed that they received no assistance today and it appears that the Americans have deactivated that system.”
Ukraine relies on US intelligence for various purposes, including operating its Patriot missile system, crucial for its ability to intercept incoming Russian ballistic missiles, as suggested by Stratford.
Can Europe assist in filling Ukraine’s intelligence gap?
To some extent.
European nations also possess spy satellites capable of providing certain imagery, but it remains uncertain whether they can offer the kind of intelligence required by Ukraine.
Furthermore, Ukraine has acquired two commercially available spy satellites manufactured by the Finnish company ICEYE. One was purchased by a nonprofit organization, while the other was supplied by the German government and German defense contractor Rheinmetall.
However, experts suggest that even with these assets, Ukraine and Europe may struggle to compensate for the void left by the suspension of US intelligence sharing.
“Europe lacks the intelligence capabilities that Ukraine receives from the US,” remarked Miron, indicating that this halt will promptly impact the battlefield. She added that the US holds “a monopoly on military satellites and intelligence.”
In February 2022, Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched Starlink in Ukraine following the invasion, which disrupted internet connectivity. Miron explained that the Ukrainian military relies on Starlink for “communications, tactical reconnaissance, and the use of FPV drones.”
On the 20th of February, US negotiators informed Kyiv that they would deactivate Starlink if Ukraine failed to reach an agreement on critical minerals, Reuters reported citing an anonymous source briefed on the discussions. This agreement on rare earth minerals would enable the US to invest in Ukraine’s mineral resources.
Musk is a close ally of Trump.
Miron emphasized that the capabilities provided to the Ukrainian military by Starlink are also challenging to replicate, even though French satellite operator Eutelsat has proposed an alternative for certain defense applications. While Starlink operates 7,000 low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, Eutelsat relies on approximately 630 satellites, supported by 35 satellites in higher orbits.
