Gujarat has revised and scaled down the growth of its Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) for the current financial year 2024-25. Now, it is expected to register a year-on-year growth of 10.2 per cent, much lower than projections made last year.
According to the Revised Estimates presented as part of the State’s budget in the Gujarat legislature on Thursday, Gujarat’s GSDP at current prices has been revised down and is now expected to grow at 10.2 per cent and touch ₹26.72 lakh crore during the current year. This revised growth rate is at least three per cent less than the budget estimates of ₹27.92 lakh crore for 2024-25.
The State’s GSDP has been on a decline since 2022-23 and grew by 10.1 per cent (as per current prices) in 2023-24 and touched 24.25 lakh crore. In the statements provided as part of the Budget documents, the Gujarat government has presented a larger picture of growth. “The State of Gujarat has consistently grown at a rate that has been higher than the national average. The State economy at current prices has recorded an annualised growth rate of 11.95 per cent for the last 14 years (2011-12 to 2024-25) as per the base year 2011-12,” the government states. For the upcoming fiscal year 2025-26, Gujarat’s GSDP is projected to grow at 11.6 per cent to ₹29.82 lakh crore.
Contributions from certain sectors like agriculture and manufacturing to Gujarat’s GSDP have seen a decline in 2023-24. For instance, the percentage of agriculture contribution to GSDP, declined to 13.8 per cent in 2023-24, compared to 14.1 per cent in 2022-23. Similarly, the contribution from manufacturing declined to 34.6 per cent in 2023-24 from 35.3 the previous year. It is the tertiary sector which has seen growth during this period.
As on March 31, 2025, Gujarat’s gross public debt is estimated to be ₹3.99 lakh crore which works out to 14.96 per cent of the GSDP. The public debt is projected to increase to ₹4.55 lakh crore by the end of fiscal 2025-26.
Though Gujarat has successfully adhered to the GFR Act and kept the fiscal deficit and public debt numbers prescribed limits, its fiscal deficit as percentage of GSDP has risen to 1.89 per cent in 2024-25, compared to the 0.97 per cent in 2023-24. Similarly, the state’s public debt as a percentage of GSDP has also risen to 14.96 per cent this fiscal from 14.54 per cent in 2023-24. By the end of 2025-26, Gujarat’s public debt as a percentage to GSDP is expected to touch 15.28 per cent.
The average cost of debt for Gujarat stood at 8.88 percent in 2011-12. This has reduced to 7.38 per cent in the year 2023-24 and is expected to be 7.36 per cent in the year 2024-25 (revised estimates). The interest payment on Public Debt as a percentage of revenue receipts in 2024-25 (revised estimates) is 11.21 percent, which was the same during financial year 2023-24
While Gujarat’s GSDP grew at a CAGR of 11.95 per cent during 2011-12 to 2024-25, the State taxes registered a CAGR of 9.71 per cent during the period. Among the State’s own tax revenue, VAT and GST are the highest contributors, accounting for 73.13 per cent of the total own tax revenue in 2024-25. VAT and GST have grown steadily at an annualised growth rate of 10.02 per cent between 2011-12 to 2024-25. Land revenue has grown at an annualised growth rate of 7.97 per cent during this period.
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